In the wake of Wednesday's Golden Globe nominations and Thursday's SAG Award nominations, it is tempting to assume that many names are now locked — in or out — for the still-to-come Oscar nominations. Some performers are being written off in certain circles after being omitted from both lists, among them The Life Ahead's Sophia Loren, Sound of Metal's Paul Raci and The Way Back's Ben Affleck. And others who received both Globe and SAG mentions are being discussed as if Oscar noms are now assured, including Hillbilly Elegy's Glenn Close, News of the World's Helena Zengel and The Little Things' Jared Leto.
But not so fast.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences doesn't even begin its Oscar nomination voting period until March 5 (the Oscar nominees will be announced on March 15), and a lot can still happen between now and then. Additionally, there are major differences — in terms of composition and inclination — between the groups that determine the noms for the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Oscars.
Golden Globe nominations are decided by roughly 90 Los Angeles-based journalists for foreign media outlets; SAG noms are determined by approximately 2,500 randomly selected U.S.-based members of SAG-AFTRA, the world's largest union of actors; and acting Oscar noms reflect the tastes of 1,363 (by last count) of members of the actors branch of the Academy, an organization comprised of people based all around the world.
Because many — in fact, most — performances do receive Golden Globe and/or SAG Award noms en route to Oscar noms, there is an assumption that performances that do not snag Globe and/or SAG noms instantly fall out of the running for an Oscar nom, and that, conversely, performances that do earn SAG and/or Globe noms are assured Oscar noms. But a look back at the last 18 years does not entirely bear out those assumptions.
Since 2001, 29 of the 380 acting Oscar nominees — just under eight percent — received neither a Golden Globe nor a SAG Awards nomination en route to the big show. The contenders who prevailed in Oscar nominations despite a cold shoulder from the Globes and SAG are:
1. Samantha Morton (In America, 2003) for best actress
2. Djimon Hounsou (In America, 2003) for best supporting actor
3. Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog, 2003) for best supporting actress
4. Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River, 2003) for best supporting actress
5. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby, 2004) for best actor
6. Alan Alda (The Aviator, 2004) for best supporting actor
7. William Hurt (A History of Violence, 2005) for best supporting actor
8. Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah, 2007) for best actor
9. Laura Linney (The Savages, 2007) for best actress
10. Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best supporting actor
11. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart, 2009) for best supporting actress
12. Javier Bardem (Biutiful, 2010) for best actor
13. Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 2011) for best actor
14. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 2011) for best supporting actor
15. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour, 2012) for best actress
16. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild, 2012) for best actress
17. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook, 2012) for best supporting actress
18. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013) for best supporting actor
19. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper, 2014) for best actor
20. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night, 2014) for best actress
21. Laura Dern (Wild, 2014) for best supporting actress
22. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years, 2015) for best actress
23. Tom Hardy (The Revenant, 2015) for best supporting actor
24. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight, 2015) for best supporting actor
25. Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals, 2016) for best supporting actor
26. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread, 2017) for best supporting actress
27. Yalitza Aparicio (Roma, 2018) for best actress
28. Marina de Tavira (Roma, 2018) for best supporting actress
29. Florence Pugh (Little Women, 2019) for best supporting actress
Many of these performances came in late-year releases which probably were not seen by enough HFPA and SAG Awards nom-com voters (Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, Cooper in American Sniper, Hardy in The Revenant, Manville in Phantom Thread). Others might be described as smallish but memorable performances in major contenders behind which people began coalescing (i.e., Harden in Mystic River, Alda in The Aviator, Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook and Dern in Wild). And still others were beneficiaries of relentless championing by members of the industry and press that took time to — but ultimately did — resonate with voters (i.e., Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Bardem in Biutiful, Riva in Amour, Cotillard in Two Days, One Night and Aparicio and de Tavira for Roma).
Fun fact: Only one person has ever won an Oscar following Globe and SAG snubs: Marcia Gay Harden, for 2000's Pollock.
Meanwhile, during that same period, 41 performances that received both Globe and SAG noms were not subsequently nominated for an Oscar.
1. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House, 2001) for best supporting actor
2. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky, 2001) for best supporting actress
3. Cate Blanchett (Bandits, 2002) for best actress or best supporting actress*
4. Richard Gere (Chicago, 2002) for best actor
5. Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven, 2002) for best supporting actor
6. Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen, 2003) for best actress
7. Maria Bello (The Cooler, 2003) for best supporting actress
8. Paul Giamatti (Sideways, 2004) for best actor
9. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man, 2005) for best actor
10. Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha, 2005) for best actress
11. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed, 2006) for best actor or best supporting actor*
12. Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl, 2007) for best actor
13. Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart, 2007) for best actress
14. Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best actress
15. Mila Kunis (Black Swan, 2010) for best supporting actress
16. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar, 2011) for best actor
17. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin, 2011) for best actress
18. John Hawkes (The Sessions, 2012) for best actor
19. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone, 2012) for best actress
20. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy, 2012) for best supporting actress
21. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock, 2012) for best supporting actress
22. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips, 2013) for best actor
23. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks, 2013) for best actress
24. Daniel Bruhl (Rush, 2013) for best supporting actor
25. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler, 2014) for best actor
26. Jennifer Aniston (Cake, 2014) for best actress
27. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation, 2015) for best supporting actor
28. Michael Shannon (99 Homes, 2015) for best supporting actor
29. Helen Mirren (Trumbo, 2015) for best supporting actress
30. Amy Adams (Arrival, 2016) for best actress
31. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins, 2016) for best supporting actor
32. James Franco (The Disaster Artist) for best actor
33. Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) for best actress
34. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes) for best actor or best supporting actor*
35. Hong Chau (Downsizing) for best supporting actress
36. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman, 2018) for best actor
37. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns, 2018) for best actress
38. Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy, 2018) for best supporting actor
39. Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari, 2019) for best actor
40. Taron Egerton (Rocket Man, 2019) for best actor
41. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers, 2019) for best supporting actress
*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting
Many of these performances came in movies that were not widely seen by the general public and wound up getting drowned out of the awards discussion entirely (e.g., Christensen in Life as a House, Blanchett in Bandits, Hawkes in The Sessions, Aniston in Cake, Shannon in 99 Homes and Chalamet in Beautiful Boy). Some were given by a star whose work was watched before others' because of his or her track record but were then overshadowed as other performers' work was seen (e.g., Crowe in Cinderella Man, Winslet in Revolutionary Road, DiCaprio in J. Edgar). Others were given by a star who had rarely, if ever, been a part of a 'serious' movie, but was trying to be seen in a new light (e.g., Diaz in Vanilla Sky, Jolie in A Mighty Heart, Kunis in Black Swan and Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins). And still others were simply competing in a jam-packed category in which a few votes could have knocked them out of contention (e.g., Gere in Chicago, Giamatti in Sideways, DiCaprio in The Departed, Hanks in Captain Phillips and Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler).
So let's apply this to the current season.
The following 16 performances are now nominated for both Globe and SAG awards:
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal, 2020) for best actor
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, 2020) for best actor
Anthony Hopkins (The Father, 2020) for best actor
Gary Oldman (Mank, 2020) for best actor
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, 2020) for best actress
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman, 2020) for best actress
Frances McDormand (Nomadland, 2020) for best actress
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman, 2020) for best actress
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7, 2020) for best supporting actor
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah, 2020) for best supporting actor
Jared Leto (The Little Things, 2020) for best supporting actor
Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami, 2020) for best supporting actor
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) for best supporting actress*
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy, 2020) for best supporting actress
Olivia Colman (The Father, 2020) for best supporting actress
Helena Zengel (News of the World, 2020) for best supporting actress
*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting
The following 18 performances were nominated for a Globe or a SAG award:
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, 2020) for best actor
James Corden (The Prom, 2020) for best actor
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton, 2020) for best actor
Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield, 2020) for best actor
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian, 2020) for best actor
Andy Samberg (Palm Springs, 2020) for best actor
Steven Yeun (Minari, 2020) for best actor
Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy, 2020) for best actress
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) for best actress
Kate Hudson (Music, 2020) for best actress
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit, 2020) for best actress
Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot, 2020) for best actress
Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma, 2020) for best actress
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods, 2020) for best supporting actor
Bill Murray (On the Rocks, 2020) for best supporting actor
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian, 2020) for best supporting actress
Amanda Seyfried (Mank, 2020) for best supporting actress
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari, 2020) for best supporting actress
Meanwhile, the following performances thought by many pundits to be in serious awards contention received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom.
Ben Affleck (The Way Back, 2020) for best actor
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami, 2020) for best actor
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky, 2020) for best actor
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami, 2020) for best actor
Adarsh Gourav (The White Tiger, 2020) for best actor
Tom Hanks (News of the World, 2020) for best actor
Tom Holland (Cherry, 2020) for best actor
Jude Law (The Nest, 2020) for best actor
John Magaro (First Cow, 2020) for best actor
Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round, 2020) for best actor
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah, 2020) for best actor
Justin Timberlake (Palmer, 2020) for best actor
Denzel Washington (The Little Things, 2020) for best actor
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie, 2020) for best actor
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth, 2020) for best actress
Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version, 2020) for best actress
Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman, 2020) for best actress
Carrie Coon (The Nest, 2020) for best actress
Clare Dunne (Herself, 2020) for best actress
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always, 2020) for best actress
Julia Garner (The Assistant, 2020) for best actress
Yeri Han (Minari, 2020) for best actress
Diane Lane (Let Her Go, 2020) for best actress
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead, 2020) for best actress
Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man, 2020) for best actress
Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk, 2020) for best actress
Meryl Streep (The Prom, 2020) for best actress
Kate Winslet (Ammonite, 2020) for best actress
Robin Wright (Land, 2020) for best actress
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie, 2020) for best actress
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7, 2020) for best supporting actor
Demian Bichir (Land, 2020) for best supporting actor
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman, 2020) for best supporting actor
Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, 2020) for best supporting actor
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami, 2020) for best supporting actor
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7, 2020) for best supporting actor
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal, 2020) for best supporting actor
Will Patton (Minari, 2020) for best supporting actor
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7, 2020) for best supporting actor
David Strathairn (Nomadland, 2020) for best supporting actor
Stanley Tucci (Supernova, 2020) for best supporting actor
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, 2020) for best supporting actor
Candice Bergen (Let Them All Talk, 2020) for best supporting actress
Ciara Bravo (Cherry, 2020) for best supporting actress
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman, 2020) for best supporting actress
Priyanka Chopra-Jonas (The White Tiger, 2020) for best supporting actress
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal, 2020) for best supporting actress
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah, 2020) for best supporting actress
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite, 2020) for best supporting actress
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always, 2020) for best supporting actress
Based on the last 19 years, it's reasonable to assume that at least one — and as many as four — of the 16 performances that received Globe and SAG noms this year won't go on to receive an Oscar nom. And that at least one of the many performances that received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom will go on to receive an Oscar nom.
Which of the Globe-SAG nominees are most at risk of being bounced by the Academy? Possibilities are Zengel and Bakalova (young relative unknowns) and Leto and Close (hailing from very poorly reviewed movies).
And which of the SAG-Globe snubees could be revived by the Academy and slotted in their place? The likeliest bets are Loren and Affleck (comeback roles) and perhaps Streep and Hanks (see: their track records with the Academy).
The Academy, of course, could — and almost certainly will — also add one or two of the folks who got a Golden Globe nom but not a SAG Award nom, or vice-versa. The most likely candidates are Boseman (due not just to sentiment but also the popularity of his film), Yeun and Youn (anchors of a widely admired movie) and Day (a standout in a late-breaking movie).
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